BearsTruth Board

some more detail from ESPN Insider:

Upset watch: No. 14 seeds most likely to spring upsets are high-scoring squads, averaging more than 77 points a game. They're 11-22 (.333) while their lower scoring counterparts are just 3-48 (.058). The telltale sign of a 3-seed victim is a tight margin of victory. No. 3 seeds that beat opponents by an average of less than 12 points are five times more prone to upsets (12 losses in 45 tries for a 26.7 percent upset rate) than 3-seeds that win by a comfortable margin (only 2 losses in 39 tries for a 5.1% upset rate).

Baylor's average margin of victory: 10 points

I live in SD, and my wife graduated from SDSU undergrad and Pharmacy school. I have watched a handful of games and attended the conference tourney. I am not worried about SDSU at all. Our size should be the factor, as their only big guy sucks. He makes wild spinning moves then kicks it back out for 3. It should be a shot by us with 3 people rebounding and we should be just fine. If they got hot they will keep it close. They play hard, and are a diciplined team. Very fun to root for and follow, but we should blast them...

I admit to not being able to conjure much anxiety about SDSU. I'm trying. I read all these accounts of their three 6'4" guards, their 3 point accuracy, etc, and then I think "What would Heslip's numbers look like if we played in the Summit?"

I think that as long as we don't fall in love with the three (fewer than 20 attempts in the game), we win this game by 20+. There are very few 6'4" guards in the Big XII that can slow down Jackson, and I just don't see guys from SDSU being able to step up where these more highly recruited and probably more athletic guards couldn't. This ignores the huge disparity in height in the post., which should lead to more offensive rebounds, put backs and "and 1s".

I look for their post players to be saddled with foul trouble all game long as they struggle to stay with our athletic front line and I look for Jackson to have 20+ in this game as he abuses his defender on drives to the basket.

ESPN insider projects the 10 potential upsets in the first round..there are two other 3 vs. 14 matchups with higher chances for an upset than ours, with Belmont over G'town almost a 30% chance

Ours is at 19%

3rdcoast...i agree with you, if we take it strong inside with Miller, Acy and PJ3, we'll have LOTs, 25+ free throw attempts

there is not a team in our conference that shoots it like this, much less a bottom half team.

regarding who will guard pierre in the post above yours, I imagine they will zone us all game.

we will have to play great defense, and we will have to be very patient on offense as the zone requires lots of ball movement and patience to get good looks.

If you cant get scared about this game then pretend we are Kansas (Bucknell, Northern Iowa, etc)

I agree on the shooting, was refering more to mentality wise.

Heslip would average 25-30 if he was a Jackwabbit

Just heard the SDST coach on the John Mo show. He was saying that his offensive has been bad lately ,but his defense has been great. He is relying on his defense in this game and he is not worried a much about Baylor as he is worried about how is team reacts on the big stage. They have never played in a game as big as this.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Facts

Bearish on first-timers
Since 1990, of the 76 teams to make their first NCAA tournament appearance, only three have won a round-of-64 game, and just one in the past 19 years. This doesn't bode well for the maiden voyage for 14th-seeded South Dakota State or 15th-seeded Norfolk State.

Naturally, seeding has been a major factor in the lack of success. Of those previous 76 teams, 53 were either 15- or 16-seeds, 73 received 12-seeds or worse, and none earned better than a No. 9 seed. The Jackrabbits and Spartans are no more fortunate this year.